It is not only the US that wants to accumulate Bitcoin as a Fed reserve. Brazil, too, with RESBit (Reserva Estratégica Soberana de Bitcoin), a bill presented to the Brazilian Congress in 2026, intends to authorise the state to accumulate up to 1 million BTC in 5 years as a national strategic reserve.
The bill, which would make Brazil the world’s largest state holder of Bitcoin if implemented, translates into the following figures:
Target: 1,000,000 BTC
Share: ~ 5% of all existing bitcoins
Achievement: Gradual purchases over 5 years to avoid price shocks
In reality, the implementation is a little more complex than shown in the table. It is not simply a matter of the state buying BTC. Rather, the aim is a gradual accumulation strategy that, in addition to direct purchases on the market, also includes taxes paid in Bitcoin retained by the state, confiscated BTC that is not sold but accumulated, the purchase of Bitcoin ETFs (in case of short-term need), and incentives for national mining. It is therefore an industrial and monetary strategy, not a speculative investment.
At present, the plan is not operational because the bill still has to be examined by parliamentary committees before being passed by Congress and then implemented through negotiations and – hopefully – agreements with the Banco Central do Brasil, but it is in essence one of the biggest events in the (albeit short) history of bitcoin, which would certainly lead to a reduction in the (fixed) supply of BTC and simultaneous pressure on demand, without considering the imitative effect of other states, which would completely change the international scenario and definitively confine bitcoin to the role of digital gold reserve; note: it cannot be seized! And this is not a minor point.
The stated objectives are clear and understandable. In terms of monetary sovereignty, BTC reserves would prove useful as protection against inflation and devaluation of the real, as well as providing natural collateral for the issuance of the Drex, the Brazilian CBDC (another interesting project).
That said, let’s stop dreaming and face reality. When fully operational, we know that the supply of BTC will be limited to just over 21 million coins, and currently just under 20 million have been mined. As we mentioned earlier, this would therefore involve buying 5% of the market. Unfortunately, the market does not consist of 20 million digital coins: there are far fewer, as shown by the estimates in the table below:
With its plan, Brazil would therefore be preparing to buy half of the liquidity actually available, effectively becoming the BTC market. It could be argued that it would do so gradually. We therefore respond with the figures announced by the promoters of the plan. One million BTC in five years means purchasing an average of 200k BTC per year, or about 550 per day, when currently 450=3,125×6×24 are mined per day (and this will continue for the next two years, after which the number will drop to 225). Therefore, Brazil would be preparing to purchase on average more than the daily production (which it cannot mine entirely on its own) and will therefore inevitably have to make purchase offers to current holders. Among these, we know there are: early adopters, funds (including ETFs but not passive financial products that replicate the trend synthetically), corporate treasuries (see Strategy) and states (e.g. the US, mainly through seizures). These entities are long-term holders who do not sell to speculate on short-term price movements, but sell strategically and therefore through sovereign OTC negotiations, diplomatic agreements and financial swaps. Certainly, the retail market is not enough.
Given these premises, there are two scenarios that clearly describe the macroeconomic risk of this situation: the first scenario sees a strengthening of BTC with a consequent revaluation of reserves but a weakening of the real; the other scenario, on the contrary, sees a weakening of BTC and therefore a significant loss of value of reserves. This is probably why such an operation has never been carried out on a large scale, i.e. on the scale proposed in the Brazilian plan. We believe that, realistically, the operation can only be carried out through national mining, confiscations, agreements with funds and OTC purchases (which are very slow). The timeframe for implementing the plan in this way cannot be limited to just five years, but rather two or three, provided that other states do not decide to follow Brazil’s example, which would complicate the situation in favour of long-term BTC holders.
Disclaimer
This post expresses the personal opinion of the Custodia Wealth Management staff who wrote it. It is not investment advice or personalised advice and should not be considered an invitation to carry out transactions in financial instruments.
